Rystad Energy research forecasts that the global offshore wind industry will rebound in 2025, with capacity additions predicted to hit 19 gigawatts (GW) and sector-wide spending expected to reach $80 billion.
The slowdown at the end of last year, when new installations dropped by 2 GW to approximately 8 GW, has been followed by a recovery.
The global resurgence is being driven by a record wave of lease auctions, with Mainland China, the world’s largest offshore wind market, accounting for 65% of new capacity.
Additions
The increase will result in total additions surpassing the previous 2021 peak by approximately 1 GW.
This also exceeds the 7.7 GW added in 2024, the 10.2 GW in 2023, and the 9.3 GW in 2022.
In 2024, a record 55 GW of offshore wind capacity was offered in lease auctions globally (excluding Mainland China).
However, despite the addition of new capacity, there is still uncertainty surrounding lease agreements between landowners and wind-energy companies.
The offered capacity does not always result in awarded capacity, therefore not all of this capacity has been awarded yet.
The Oregon auction for 3 GW of floating wind power last year received no bids, while the Gulf of Maine auction only awarded roughly 7 GW of the approximately 13 GW offered.
These are examples of how the US has seen mixed results in its offshore wind auctions.
The estimated 30-40 GW of lease auction openings expected to be available in 2025 represents a significant decline from 2024’s record offerings.
However, this projected capacity is still substantial and consistent with the levels observed in 2021 and 2022.
Robust 2025
“Global offshore wind is set for a robust year in 2025; however, certain signals could affect its smooth upward trajectory. US federal policy is creating significant global ripple effects, hindering offshore wind development, especially where a large portion of auctioned capacity lies,” said Petra Manuel, Senior Offshore Wind Analyst, Rystad Energy.
President Donald Trump’s January memorandum halting new leasing and approvals on the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS), citing environmental and safety concerns, could last throughout his term, pausing new developments and creating continued uncertainty for ongoing projects.
The number of project approvals for new offshore wind projects decreased in 2024 due to project delays, which had a big impact on final investment decisions (FID).
In 2024, only a small number of US projects, including Empire Wind 1, Sunrise Wind and Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind, reached FID.
The number of FIDs in Europe and Asia is expected to remain consistent with last year’s figures, according to the Norway-based energy consultancy.
Potential for increase in the US
However, there is potential for an increase in the US, contingent upon US Wind, Southcoast Wind, and New England Wind projects securing offtake agreements and construction and operation (COP) approvals.
The last two have delayed signing offtake contracts until March of this year.
The year 2024 saw some positive developments in the renewable energy sector, with developers making progress on projects such as Red Rock Power and ESB’s 1.1-GW Inch Cape in the UK, and Equinor’s 810-MW Empire Wind 1 in the US, despite the slow pace of sanctioning.
Several wind farms reached final investment decision (FID) in 2024.
These include Iberdrola’s 315 MW Windanker in Germany, RWE and TotalEnergies’ 795 MW OranjeWind in the Netherlands, and Orsted’s 924 MW Sunrise Wind 1 in the US.
Inch Cape also reached FID in early 2025, securing 15-year contracts for difference (CFD) in both 2022 and 2024.
These CFDs provided revenue certainty and boosted investor confidence, contributing to the financial close announced in January 2025.
European FIDs are projected to reach 9.5 GW in 2025, with the UK, Poland, and Germany leading the way.
Poland is anticipated to have multiple major wind farms reach FID, including Polenergia and Equinor’s Baltyk II and III, with several projects in these countries on track for final approval.
This follows the recent FID for Orsted and PGE’s Baltica 2 in late January 2025.
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