Exxon Mobil Corporation is scheduled to release its financial results for the fourth quarter of 2025 before the market opens on January 30.
Market expectations, as reflected by the Zacks Consensus Estimate, place the company’s earnings at $1.68 per share for the quarter.
The figure represents a slight year-over-year improvement of 0.6% from the earnings reported in the corresponding period last year.
In terms of analyst sentiment leading up to the report, the earnings estimate has seen a mixed trend over the past month, with three upward revisions counterbalancing a single downward adjustment.
For the company’s revenue, the Zacks Consensus Estimate stands at $83.2 billion.
If realised, this would indicate a marginal decline of 0.3% compared to the actual revenue figures from the fourth quarter of the prior year.
Investors and analysts will be closely watching the report for insights into the company’s operational performance and the impact of global energy market dynamics.
Over the last four quarters, Exxon consistently surpassed the consensus earnings estimate, achieving an average positive surprise of 5.7%.
Factors influencing Exxon’s performance
ExxonMobil anticipates a sequential decrease in December quarter upstream earnings, ranging from $800 million to $1.2 billion, as disclosed in its recent 8-K SEC filings. This expected decline is attributed to lower liquid prices.
An analysis of US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data provides insight into oil price trends during the December quarter.
The average Cushing, OK West Texas Intermediate spot prices showed a decline over the quarter, moving from $60.89 per barrel in October to $60.06 per barrel in November and settling at $57.97 per barrel in December.
This downward trend followed higher prices in the preceding quarter, where average commodity prices were $68.39, $64.86, and $63.96 per barrel in July, August, and September, respectively, according to the EIA.
This weakening crude pricing environment is expected to negatively impact the upstream segments of major integrated energy companies, including BP plc and Chevron Corporation.
Regarding natural gas, Exxon anticipates that a change in gas price could lead to either a $100 million sequential increase or a $300 million decrease in its upstream earnings.
ExxonMobil anticipates a sequential increase in its December quarter earnings from the Energy Products business unit, ranging from $300 million to $700 million.
This positive outlook is likely attributed to the favorable soft crude pricing environment experienced in the fourth quarter of 2025, which benefited its refining operations.
Stock performance and outlook
Over the past year, Exxon Mobil’s stock experienced a significant jump of 25.9%.
Comparing this to other integrated energy majors in the same period, BP plc saw a surge of 20.9%, while Chevron Corporation registered a smaller gain of 8.6%.
ExxonMobil currently appears relatively overvalued, as its share price has outperformed both BP and Chevron.
This is reflected in XOM’s trailing 12-month Enterprise Value/EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) ratio of 8.84, which represents a significant premium to the industry average of 5.43.
While softer crude prices may have negatively impacted Exxon’s upstream business in the fourth quarter, the integrated energy major maintains a favorable long-term perspective.
This optimism is underpinned by its significant presence in key areas: the Permian Basin, the most prolific oil and gas region in the US, and offshore Guyana.
Specifically in the Permian, Exxon has enhanced its well recoveries by up to 20% through the use of lightweight proppant technology.
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