S&P 500 has offered healthy returns over the past ten years but the investment landscape will be dramatically different through 2034, warns David Kostin of Goldman Sachs.
The bank’s chief of US equity strategy does not expect the broad market index to return more than 3.0% annually over the next decade.
In comparison, it returned about 13% on average between 2013 and 2023.
Kostin cited unreasonable initial valuations and unusual concentration for his dovish view for the long term.
S&P 500 is currently up close to 25% versus the start of this year but much of it is attributed only to the “Magnificent Seven”.
Kostin expects S&P 500 to underperform bonds
Investors are keeping super bullish on the S&P 500 as inflation is returning to the 2.0% target, economy remains sufficiently strong, and the Federal Reserve plans on cutting interest rates further in November.
But the likes of Google and Nvidia can help the benchmark index push further up for so long, as per David Kostin.
“Our historical analyses show that it’s extremely difficult for any firm to maintain high levels of sales growth and profit margins over sustained periods of time,” he told clients in a recent research note.
Historically, the S&P 500 handily beats bonds in terms of yearly returns. But the bank’s chief of US equity strategy now sees a 72% probability of it actually underperforming the 10-year Treasury over the next ten years.
Our market expert Crispus Nyaga also expects the overbought SPX to reverse in the coming months.
Why else is Goldman Sachs dovish on S&P 500?
David Kostin does not expect investing in the S&P 500 index to be sufficient to lock in healthy returns for the next ten years also because of lofty initial valuations.
The current high level of equity valuations is a key reason our 10-year forward return forecast sits at the lower end of the historical distribution.
Goldman Sachs uses CAPE or cyclically adjusted price/earnings ratio for valuation and remains dovish as higher initial valuation typically leads to lower future returns.
At 38 times, that metric is currently in the 97th percentile.
In the worst-case scenario, Kostin even expects the broad market index to return negative 1.0% annually.
He is not, however, alone in expecting lower than average returns from the S&P 500 over the next decade.
JPMorgan also cited high valuation and enormous fiscal spending in a recent research note as it forecast an annual return of about 6.0% out of the benchmark index for the next ten years.
Persistent inflation could shrink multiples as well, the investment firm added.
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