The year 2024 is “virtually certain” to become the world’s warmest since records began, the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), said on Thursday.
The report was released ahead of next week’s COP29 climate summit in Azerbaijan.
Several countries are expected to try and agree on huge increases in climate funding to tackle global warming and other such issues.
According to the report, 2024 will be the first year when the planet is more than 1.5 degrees Celsius hotter than in the 1850-1900 pre-industrial period.
Meanwhile, Republic Donald Trump’s victory has raised concerns about the US’ policies regarding climate change.
Trump is a supporter of more drilling of oil and gas and is also expected to roll back several climate regulations passed by President Joe Biden’s administration.
Last month was the second-warmest October
According to the C3S report, last month was the second-warmest October globally, after last year.
The average surface air temperature during October was 15.25 degrees Celsius, which was 0.80 degrees Celsius above the 1991-2020 average for the month.
The average temperature during last month was also 1.65 degrees Celsius hotter than the pre-industrial level.
It was the 15th month in a 16th-month period for which the global average surface temperature exceeded 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
Additionally, global temperatures for the past 12 months were 0.74 degrees Celsius above the 1991-2020 average and 1.62 degrees Celsius hotter than the pre-industrial average.
In the first 10 months of this year, average temperatures were hotter by 0.16 degrees Celsius compared with the same period last year.
It was also 0.71 degrees Celsius above the 1991-2020 average.
“The average temperature anomaly for the rest of 2024 would have to drop to almost zero for 2024 to not be the warmest year,” C3S said in the report.
“Given that 2023 was 1.48°C above the pre-industrial level according to ERA5, it is likewise virtually certain that the annual temperature for 2024 from ERA5 will be more than 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level, and likely that it will be more than 1.55°C above.”
Average temperature in Europe
The average temperature in Europe during October was 10.83 degrees Celsius, which was 1.23 degrees Celsius warmer than the 1991-2020 average.
October was the fifth warmest on record for Europe after 2022, according to the report.
The agency said that temperatures in Europe were above average over almost all of the continent.
Outside Europe, temperatures were most above average over northern Canada, and well above average over the central and western United States, northern Tibet, Japan, and Australia.
However, temperatures were most notably below average over central Greenland and Iceland.
Antarctica sea ice was the second lowest for October
Sea ice in the Arctic reached its 4th lowest monthly extent for October, at 19% below normal.
“Sea ice concentration anomalies were well below average in all peripheral seas of the Arctic Ocean, particularly in the Barents Sea, Canadian Archipelago, and north of Svalbard,” C3S said.
Antarctica sea ice was the second lowest for October, at 8% below normal.
Samantha Burgess, Deputy Director of the C3S said:
After 10 months of 2024 it is now virtually certain that 2024 will be the warmest year on record and the first year of more than 1.5ºC above pre-industrial levels according to the ERA5 dataset. This marks a new milestone in global temperature records and should serve as a catalyst to raise ambition for the upcoming Climate Change Conference, COP29.
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