According to a Reuters poll of experts, Argentina’s consumer prices likely grew at a moderate pace in October, with the annual average rate on course to reach a six-year low.
The figures indicate that inflationary pressures remained restrained despite fears over a major legislative vote on October 26.
Fears of a price surge were calmed after disbursements of US funding helped stabilise Argentina’s volatile currency market.
This action eased financial nerves amid a politically sensitive era for President Javier Milei’s administration.
Milei’s party achieved victory in last month’s midterm election, where the majority of voters showed approval for his economic stabilisation policy.
The outcome strengthened confidence in his austerity-driven policies, even as discontent lingers over the tough spending cuts required to keep public finances in check.
Slight uptick in monthly prices
Based on the median forecast from 25 analysts surveyed from November 5 to 10, monthly inflation was expected to have increased slightly to 2.2% in October from 2.1% in September.
This minor uptick indicates that the measures taken over monetary restraint by the government, as well as by controlling the exchange rate, remain effective.
Inflation was seen slowing on a year-on-year basis to 31.3% from 31.8%, its least since July 2018.
This trend maintains Argentina on track for the best average inflation in years, arguably the largest improvement after such a long history of runaway prices chewing up incomes and savings.
Economists observed that the uncertainty surrounding the October vote had little impact on prices. Eco Go analysts said that inflation remained similar to that of September.
“Uncertainty had little impact on prices, with a relatively moderate pass-through (of foreign exchange volatility) and inflation similar to that of September,” said the report.
Food prices lead gains
Of consumer categories, fruits and vegetables presumably experienced the largest gains in October. Household consumption remained weak, restricting demand for these items, which were largely stable in 2025.
But supply changes and seasonal factors seem to have pushed food prices up, further offsetting declines elsewhere.
October data suggests easing inflation overall, but all eyes are turning to the holiday season. The next major price driver that has been put in place during these periods is the spending.
However, most economists expect consumers to limit purchases amid rising unemployment and sluggish homeowner disposable income, holding inflationary pressures at bay into the end of the year.
Longer-term outlook
Compared to previous years, the inflation trend is still on the positive side.
A separate Reuters poll from October, however, found that annual inflation is expected to end 2025 at an average of 41.7%, a steep decline from the eye-watering 117.8%% for 2024.
This decline highlights the unprecedented level of disinflation Argentina has achieved under Milei, even as fiscal tightening and a lower growth rate have an associated social cost.
Beyond that, analysts see inflation easing to 23.7% in 2026, driven by ongoing monetary restraint and a firmer peso.
Still, the gain may come at a time when unemployment begins to rise again as the government continues with further reforms of a structural nature designed to open up the economy.
Ahead of data release
On Wednesday, official inflation data will be released, providing a more comprehensive view of Argentina’s price dynamics during October.
For Milei, the numbers will serve as both a political and economic benchmark, confirmation that his stabilisation strategy is bearing fruit, even as Argentines continue to grapple with the short-term pain of adjustment.
Argentina’s inflation story, at least for the time being, seems to be one of tenacity and cautious optimism: a country moving steadily forward on a precarious path toward price stability after years of hyperinflationary unrest.
The post Argentina inflation holds steady in October as Milei’s reforms anchor markets appeared first on Invezz